Math Says Yes

Concept

Absolute vs Relative Risk

A relative change ('50% more', 'doubles your risk') hides how big the underlying risk actually is. A large relative increase on a tiny base rate is still tiny. Always ask for the absolute numbers — how many in 100 before and after — not just the percentage change.

Lessons

A huge whole beside tiny slices that make a percentage look larger than it is.

Ask for the Absolute Number

A percentage change is meaningless without the base it changes.

Related Facts

Risk & Decisions

4 min · medium

A huge circle beside two tiny slivers, one only slightly larger than the other.

A "50% higher risk" can still be almost nothing

Headlines shout '50% more likely!' — but 50% more of a small risk is still a small risk.

Risk & Decisions

5 min · medium

Two tiny dots almost the same size, shown as two very different-height bars through a magnifying glass.

Relative risk vs absolute risk: the difference that changes decisions

Relative risk tells you how many times bigger a risk became. Absolute risk tells you how many extra people are affected.