Math Says Yes
Concept

Correlation vs Causation

Two things moving together does not mean one causes the other. A third variable (a confounder) can drive both, or the link can be coincidence. Establishing causation needs more than correlation — usually a controlled comparison.

Lessons

Two outcomes connected through a hidden common cause above them.
Shared Causes Fake Links
A hidden common cause can make unrelated things move together.

Related Facts

Data Tricks
5 min · easy
Two gears that never touch, both turned by a third gear below them through belts.
Correlation vs causation: why moving together is not proof
Correlation says two things move together. Causation says one changes the other. A hidden third factor can make correlation look causal.
Data Tricks
4 min · easy
An ice cream cone and ocean waves linked by a dotted line, with a sun above connected to both.
Does ice cream cause drownings?
Imagine a seasonal chart where ice-cream sales and drownings rise together. Dessert looks suspicious, but the chart alone cannot show cause.

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